Tag: Royal LePage

 

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada decreased 9.2 per cent year-over-year to $778,300 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in Canada rose 2.8 per cent, as buyers began to come off the sidelines following the Bank of Canada’s decision last month to pause interest rate hikes for the first time in a year.

“There has been nothing ‘typical’ about Canada’s housing market since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns brought the housing market to a grinding halt in early 2020 before the work-from-home revolution catapulted it into a two-year, all-season frenzy of record sales volumes and aggressive price growth,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “As markets do, this market overshot, and the inevitable correction was triggered when the Bank of Canada began to rapidly raise interest rates. The downturn came swiftly, and the real estate industry remained depressed for twelve months, a longer correction than the aftermath of the financial crisis thirteen years ago. We have turned the corner and the housing economy is growing again; none too soon for many buyers, who have been waiting patiently for prices to bottom out.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home declined 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $808,700, while the median price of a condominium decreased 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $571,700. Quarter-over-quarter, median prices for these two property segments were up 3.4 and 1.8 per cent, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

“Sanity is slowly returning to the housing market,” added Soper. “While some buyer hopefuls will remain sidelined by a reduced capacity to borrow in this higher rate environment, our market data shows that many of those who chose to pause their search to see where prices and interest rates would land have resumed their home buying plans. Unfortunately, the challenge they must now deal with is a severe shortage of homes for sale.”

Royal LePage’s internal data and real estate boards across the country report that home sales have been trending upward since the start of the year, as buyer activity picks up. The number of available homes for sale, however, remains too low to satisfy demand.

In Canada’s major urban centres, sales and new listings are steadily increasing on a month-to-month basis, despite being down compared to this time last year.

“There remains a chronic shortage of housing supply in Canada, be it for rent or purchase. We are grappling with a growing problem here that once was the burden of our largest cities but is increasingly being felt in secondary markets as well,” Soper said. “Yes, governments are adopting policies intended to address the problem, yet the pace of progress is far from encouraging. And challenges facing developers – such as the increased cost of materials and labour, and a shortage of skilled tradespeople – persist.”

This week, public consultations on changes to Canada’s mortgage stress test proposed by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) will close. The regulator is looking to impose even more restrictive access to mortgage financing in an effort to mitigate risk for major banks against potential consumer default.

“The mortgage stress test has proven to be an effective tool to ensure Canadians can meet their obligations to a lender in the event that interest rates increase, as they have this past year,” said Soper. “The legislation was introduced in 2018 when borrowing costs were very low and rates highly likely to rise. For OSFI to place new hurdles in the path of young Canadians’ pursuit of home ownership now, in an environment where rates are high and likely to fall, would be turning a blind eye to the macro-economic environment, and unnecessarily cruel. Further, such a move could do more harm than good, forcing families into the unregulated B-lender market.

“Despite a year of rapidly-rising interest rates, we see that the number of Canadian homeowners who have failed to meet obligations to their financial institution remains exceptionally low. Our banks have managed their mortgage portfolios well, and it helps that unemployment is very low,” added Soper.

Last month, the federal government revised the parameters of the two-year ban on foreign buyers, which came into effect on January 1st. The list of exemptions has been expanded to include non-Canadians who wish to purchase residential property for the purpose of development and vacant land zoned for residential and mixed-use, among other amendments.

“This policy was intended to deter foreign investors from parking money in Canadian properties that sit vacant. The government’s decision to allow further exemptions from the ban shows a willingness to tweak policy to meet the needs of our housing supply crisis,” added Soper.

In British Columbia, the newly-implemented Home Buyer Rescission Period, a ‘cooling-off’ period that allows buyers the right to rescind an offer within three business days of an agreement being signed, has not proven to be useful.

“Few B.C. buyers are exercising their right to use the cooling-off period the way it was intended – to allow them an ‘out’ after a rash decision to purchase a property. Unfortunately, we are seeing people blatantly abusing the program by making offers on multiple homes as they shop around, locking up scant housing inventory as if clothing in a retail store. The legislation is harmful, not helpful, and should be amended or scrapped.”

The Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate is holding at 4.5 per cent.² The central bank has indicated that it will maintain the rate at its current level if inflation continues to come down. However, they will not hesitate to raise interest rates again in the future if necessary.

“This was the signal that so many Canadians were waiting for. The Bank of Canada’s rate hold was the green light that stability is returning to the market, and it has had a swift and significant impact on buyer demand,” said Soper.

A recent Royal LePage survey³ found that nearly one quarter of Canadians (24%) were in the market for a new home over the last year, and 63 per cent of them said they postponed their plans due to rising interest rates. Of those who put their plans on hold, 26 per cent said they plan to resume their search this spring, and another 36 per cent said they would return to the market in the near future, once the Bank of Canada holds rates for several consecutive months.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect an earlier-than-expected boost in activity in Canada’s major housing markets.

“Coming out of a correction, it is common to underestimate the speed at which the market will turn itself around. As market activity is rebounding quicker than anticipated, we are looking ahead with a sense of cautious optimism,” noted Soper. “While we do not expect huge price gains this year, some sense of normalcy is returning to the market.”

Following activity levels in the first quarter of 2023 that surpassed the Company’s expectations – a vigorous return of buyer demand coupled with ultra-low housing supply conditions – Royal LePage has adjusted its quarterly forecast for the remainder of the year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price is expected to continue rising modestly but steadily over the next nine months.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area decreased 11.8 per cent year-over-year to $1,119,900 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA increased 4.8 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 11.9 per cent year-over-year to $1,400,200 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 7.4 per cent to $707,700 during the same period.

“The GTA housing market started off the year with more robust activity than we expected. Right out the gate, many buyers that had been sitting on the sidelines while interest rates were rising, reignited their search for a home,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Once again, buyers are faced with a shortage of inventory. Properties in desirable neighbourhoods that are competitively priced are receiving multiple offers, and while we are not seeing as many deals close tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking, like we did during the pandemic boom, there is every indication that buyers will face tight competition this spring. We’ve also seen the number of appointments to see properties steadily increase since the start of the year, a clear indication that buyers are ready to jump back in.”

While sales are way down in the Greater Toronto Area compared to the record highs reported in the first quarter of 2022, on a month-to-month basis, sales were up 54 per cent between January and February, and 44 per cent between February and March; and new listings were up 9 per cent from January to February, and 34 per cent February to March.⁴

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,144,300 in the first quarter of 2023; a 5.3 per cent increase over the prior quarter. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.3 per cent to $1,654,200, while the median price of a condominium decreased 10.3 per cent to $705,400.

“Many would-be first-time homebuyers continue to grapple with affordability challenges and difficulties qualifying for a substantial mortgage. This is keeping prices up in the rental market, as so many young buyer hopefuls have been unable to get onto the property ladder,” noted Yolevski. “In addition, they are competing with newcomers to Canada, the majority of whom settle in Toronto.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area decreased 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $551,400 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GMA increased 1.3 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 3.1 per cent year-over-year to $616,300 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.8 per cent to $450,400 during the same period.

“Until March 8th, the day the Bank of Canada announced that it was maintaining its key interest rate for the first time in 12 months, homebuyers remained on the sidelines of the market while assessing the extent of the impact on their future purchase plans. As we had anticipated, the return of real estate demand quickly manifested itself after the central bank chose to stabilize its key lending rate, implying that the worst was behind us. And, it coincided with the return of good weather and the popular season for house hunting, bringing a wave of optimism to those who had temporarily put their plans on ice,” said Marc Lefrançois, real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance in Montreal.

While sales are way down in the Greater Montreal Area compared to the record highs reported in the first quarter of 2022, on a month-to-month basis, sales were up 52 per cent between January and February, and 32 per cent between February and March; and new listings were up 20 per cent from January to February, and 30 per cent February to March.⁵

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.9 per cent year-over-year to $665,400 in the first quarter of 2023; a 2.9 per cent increase over the prior quarter. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 3.9 per cent to $1,021,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.8 per cent to $545,600.

“Although property prices in the region have declined this quarter compared to the same period last year, they have increased slightly since late 2022, which has led us to revise our estimates upward,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage, Quebec Region. “Soaring inflation is behind us and consumer confidence in the housing market has rebounded. We remain cautiously optimistic about property values, as economic indicators, full employment levels and limited supply of homes in the market appear to be in favour of a recovery, rather than a slowdown in demand over the medium term.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 10.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,224,200 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.3 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 11.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,661,400 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 9.9 per cent to $746,300 during the same period.

“There is no shortage of buyers in Greater Vancouver these days. After waiting for home prices to hit a floor, buyer hopefuls have returned to the market ready to compete, a mindset that is fueling multiple-bid scenarios and zero-condition offers once again, in some cases,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Our market continues to face extremely low levels of inventory, an issue that is sustaining competition among purchasers. As move-up buyers have little product to choose from, they continue to hold off on listing their homes for sale. This hesitation is hindering inventory turnover.”

Ryalls noted that consumer sentiment remains positive despite a shortage of supply.

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 7.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,363,700 in the first quarter of 2023; a 1.3 per cent increase over the prior quarter. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.5 per cent to $2,412,200, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.9 per cent to $794,600.

“The price correction we experienced over the past year is now behind us. I expect we’ll see a modest uptick in prices in 2023 as demand continues to outpace supply,” said Ryalls. “While we hope to see a boost in home inventory over the spring months, it is unlikely to be enough to feed the continuously rising demand we’re experiencing.”

While sales are way down in Greater Vancouver compared to the record highs reported in the first quarter of 2022, on a month-to-month basis, sales were up 77 per cent between January and February, and 40 per cent between February and March; and new listings were up 5 per cent from January to February, and 25 per cent February to March.⁶

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased 10.3 per cent year-over-year to $725,700 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased modestly by 0.8 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 12.2 per cent year-over-year to $831,600 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 11.2 per cent to $384,000 during the same period.

“Real estate in Ottawa was quieter than normal in the first quarter but is tracking toward pre-pandemic levels as buyers return to the market. Still, inventory challenges could be a problem for buyers. The lack of supply will continue to put pressure on prices, and we’re already starting to see multiple offers again on well-priced properties. It’s simple low-supply, high-demand math,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “Sellers remain in a ‘wait and see’ pattern, holding on to their homes in hopes that supply will increase, or leaving properties on the market at unrealistic price points. Last year was an unusual market. Sellers expecting 2022 prices in 2023 may need to re-evaluate.

“With enough buyer pressure, Ottawa’s real estate market should perform at typical levels this year, provided interest rates remain stable or increase only slightly from their current position.”

Rogan noted that Ottawa’s large civil servant population has a strong influence that could impact market activity, with strike talks underway between the feds and the country’s biggest public sector union.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $616,500 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.9 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $705,000 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.5 per cent to $243,300 during the same period.

“Calgary’s housing market in the early parts of 2023 has signaled a return to pre-pandemic seasonal patterns. At the end of the first quarter, buying and selling activity ramped up considerably, as the spring market approached. Although sales in January and February were about half the amount recorded in 2022, home prices have continued to increase amid relentless purchaser demand,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “A shortage of inventory has contributed to the steady rise in prices. Properties valued up to the $800,000 mark are seeing persistent competition. Low supply continues to put upward pressure on prices.”

Lyall added that some sellers are reluctant to upgrade their home at the expense of giving up their current mortgage interest rate, a decision that is contributing to supply scarcity. While a steady stream of inventory is expected to come on the market in the coming months, it will not be enough to satisfy growing demand.

“I expect we will see some improvement in supply this spring, but not a sufficient amount to satisfy buyer demand,” said Lyall. “The rate of new construction has slowed in the region and we are not replenishing home supplies fast enough. This will contribute to upward pressure on home prices this year.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased 5.0 per cent year-over-year to $429,500 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased modestly by 0.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.8 per cent year-over-year to $466,000 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.3 per cent to $195,300 during the same period.

“After a period of relatively balanced supply-demand conditions in the fall, Edmonton has transitioned into a seller’s market once again, as inventory levels tighten. More homebuyers are gravitating towards the entry-level segment of the market — or are staying put on the sidelines altogether — as move-up and luxury properties have become less affordable,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Activity is somewhat stalled, as some sellers are holding out for a higher offer and others are not listing until they find another property to buy. This self-perpetuating cycle results in low activity, but I expect that to turn around this spring.”

Shearer noted that although Edmonton has more inventory now than it did a year ago, the number of homes for sale remains below pre-pandemic levels. Reduced supply is expected to bring about a modest increase in home prices over the coming months.

“As warmer weather approaches, I anticipate more buyers and sellers will come out of hibernation,” said Shearer. “As the real estate cycle returns to more seasonal patterns, we’re expecting a typical spring market in 2023, which will peak in May or June, before flattening out in the fall.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax decreased 6.8 per cent year-over-year to $474,700 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.2 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 6.5 per cent year-over-year to $532,300 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.3 per cent to $401,600 during the same period.

“While sales remain low in Halifax, demand has rebounded and there is strength coming back to the market in terms of pricing. After hitting a low in the fourth quarter of last year, prices are going up as the conditions shift towards a seller’s market,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “In the sub-$500,000 segment in particular, demand is so strong that we’ve seen up to 20 offers on some properties. Inventory levels have improved over this time last year, but remain unusually low for the spring market, which will keep sales low as well.”

Honsberger added that many sellers remain hesitant to list as their options to move up are limited. But, he expects a lift in inventory levels in the coming weeks, as is typical for the region’s spring market.

“April, May and June are typically the strongest months of the year, and all signs point to a return to normal levels of activity this spring. If we see more homes come on the market, they will get absorbed quickly, as the demand is certainly there.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg decreased 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $369,900 in the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.5 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.4 per cent year-over-year to $406,800 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium remained relatively flat, decreasing 0.2 per cent to $243,500 during the same period.

“Activity is on a promising upswing in Winnipeg’s real estate market, albeit at a more moderate pace than this time last year. While home prices dropped consistently throughout the back half of 2022, the early months of 2023 have recorded gradual price increases,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “As inflation slows and interest rates stabilize, consumer confidence is coming back to the market. Supply, however, is not yet meeting the growing demand. Inventory has improved compared to this time last year, but remains behind pre-pandemic levels.”

Froese added that the important entry-level market, which includes homes under $400,000, is particularly competitive heading into the spring.

“Competition is heating up again, and new listings and well-priced properties are getting multiple offers,” said Froese, adding that 30 per cent of transactions in March were sold over the list price; a trend he expects to continue throughout the spring market. “With inventory low and demand heating up, spring is looking like a busy season for both buyers and sellers.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina remained relatively flat in the first quarter of 2023, increasing a modest 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $362,800. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 0.9 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $390,800 in the first quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 9.3 per cent to $222,800 during the same period.

“While the first quarter of 2023 felt like a crawl compared to the last two years, the real estate market in Regina actually performed closer to the stable pre-pandemic levels we’re used to. Inventory remains very low with economic factors like interest rates and inflation keeping some sellers on the sidelines, but I expect to see a boost in activity this spring,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “We’ve seen a resurgence in apartment and condo sales, more movement from landlords selling properties, and properly priced listings are attracting multiple offers again. These factors suggest that prices will go up slightly by the end of the year.”

Duggleby added that inventory issues remain a challenge. Without the confidence that they can find what they are looking for, many sellers who could bring starter homes to the market are holding off on listing.

“Since almost every seller is also a buyer, the self-perpetuating cycle of low supply continues to stall market activity. In addition, builders have had a difficult time rebooting their operations,” he added. “Construction should pick up again this summer, along with purpose-built rental projects thanks to government incentives, which is positive news for those who cannot afford to buy right now.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2023
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2023

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The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

 

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada increased 3.3 per cent year-over-year to $774,900 in the third quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 4.9 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded. This is reflective of a continued softening of home prices in markets across the country.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will decrease 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The forecast has been revised downward from the previous quarter, reflecting an expected flattening or modest decrease of prices through the remainder of the year, and following quarterly declines in a majority of Canadian markets in the third quarter. Of the report’s 62 regions, only four markets posted a quarterly aggregate home price increase in the third quarter (St. John’s, Charlottetown, Montreal South Shore, Saskatoon).

“September did not bring the typical seasonal lift in the number of homes trading hands in this country, a clear indication that our housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Home prices follow sales volume trends, which means we will see further softening in the final months of the year. Our revised outlook has national prices at just below where we ended 2021, erasing the gains made in the first quarter of 2022.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year to $806,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.1 per cent year-over-year to $566,100. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

In the third quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded an increase of 25.4 per cent over the same period in 2020, and 21.5 per cent over the same period in 2019.

“Home sales volumes have fallen in the face of economic uncertainty and rising rates, but so too have the number of properties available to purchase. With demand and supply falling in tandem, there is limited downward pressure on prices. Canadian home values should end the year well above pre-pandemic levels, retaining much of the gains made during the real estate boom of 2020 and 2021,” said Soper.

The Greater Montreal Area posted a quarterly decline in its aggregate home price for the first time in more than five years, down 5.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2022. This follows similar declines seen in the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, beginning in the second quarter.

“While Greater Montreal’s real estate market proved more resilient than the country’s two other largest urban centres in the spring, the region saw a material decline in sales activity during the summer, as buyer demand dwindled in the face of subsequent interest rate hikes. Sales activity in the country’s largest urban areas remains constrained as global policy makers tackle the scourge of inflation,” added Soper.

Major centres in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada also began to show price depreciation in the third quarter, although Calgary and Edmonton posted more moderate declines, due to their relative affordability and strong migration from other provinces.

With so many would-be buyers waiting on the sidelines, sales activity has weakened across the country, as evidenced by a drop in appraisal applications in 2022. According to RPS Real Property Solutions, requests for property appraisals were down 16 per cent year-over-year in the month of September, and down seven per cent year-to-date; an indication that fewer homes are trading hands. Soper warned that a flood of pent-up demand will eventually return to the market once consumer confidence is restored.

“While sales volumes are well off the pandemic-fueled peak, many buyers remain active in today’s market. Some are motivated to transact before their locked-in mortgage pre-approval rates expire. Others are encouraged by a rare drop in home prices, the lack of bidding wars and the ability to include conditions in purchase offers,” he added. “At the first indication that interest rates have ended their climb and home prices have stabilized, I would expect a sharp increase in those entering the market as the need for housing has not diminished one bit. And regrettably, Canada continues to suffer from a severe shortage of housing supply.”

A recent Royal LePage survey² found that almost one in five Canadians (19%) have postponed or deprioritized their home buying plans this year, due to the increased cost of living, including higher interest rates and rising inflation. That figure rises to 29 per cent among Canadians aged 18 to 34. Overall, of those who said they have modified their plans, 40 per cent said they still plan to buy, but at a later date.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area increased 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,098,100 in the third quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA decreased 5.9 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,344,700, following record-high price gains in 2021. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium increased 8.7 per cent year-over-year to $701,300 in the third quarter of 2022.

“Housing activity slowed over the summer in the GTA, as many buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines. However, while home prices continued to decrease in the third quarter, a moderate boost in demand is expected this fall, as potential buyers who have secured a mortgage rate are eager to transact before it expires, and ahead of another potential interest rate hike,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $1,127,300 in the third quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.8 per cent to $1,554,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.0 per cent to $708,400.

“The city of Toronto is made up of many diverse micro real estate markets. Trends can vary from one neighbourhood to the next, with diversified buyer demand. In areas with low inventory, properties that are well priced continue to command multiple offers,” said Yolevski. “Some investors are looking to take advantage of lower sticker prices, while many first-time buyers have put their purchase plans on hold for the time being, which has caused a surge in rental demand and sent rental prices skyrocketing over the last several months.”

Yolevski expects that home prices will level off through the remainder of 2022.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 7.3 per cent year-over-year to $554,800 in the third quarter of 2022. For the first time in more than five years, the region posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in the aggregate home price, down 5.3 per cent over the second quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.8 per cent year-over-year to $621,400, while the median price of a condominium rose 5.4 per cent $432,600 during the same period.

“The Greater Montreal Area’s real estate market entered a notable price correction period between the second and third quarters, lagging slightly behind Canada’s other two major urban centres,” confirms Marc Lefrançois, licensed real estate broker at Royal LePage Tendance in Montreal. “Selling prices are still higher than they were in 2021, but are trending downwards and stabilizing on an annual basis, while market conditions return to balance.”

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home remained flat, increasing by 0.8 per cent year-over-year to $653,800 in the third quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 7.8 per cent year-over-year to $977,800, reflecting this quarter’s increase in inventory of homes for sale and a decrease in buyers demand. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium increased 1.7 per cent year-over-year to $510,800.

“This modest correction in real estate prices was inevitable and will provide some breathing room for buyers, but that could be short-lived if economic fundamentals and the global political climate remain as they are today. While prices have declined, demand has not disappeared. On the contrary, many cohorts of buyers, including first-time homebuyers, remain hopeful that prices will decrease enough to meet their budgets. However, there is no indication that interest rates will reverse in the short term, which will counter any affordability gained by the correction in home prices,” said Lefrançois.

Lefrançois added that while home prices are hardly a bargain today, current market conditions offer considerably greater equality in the negotiation process.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 2.4 per cent year-over-year to $1,250,200 in the third quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 4.7 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,710,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 7.0 per cent to $745,900 during the same period.

“Despite softening prices, many buyers continue to wait cautiously on the sidelines as they reassess their budgets and anticipate potential further price decreases. Real estate activity in Greater Vancouver remains well below the levels witnessed during the pandemic boom,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty.

Ryalls believes the majority of the price correction has already occurred and expects prices to flatten out through the remainder of 2022.

“The supply and demand fundamentals of the market continue to hold true; inventory is remarkably low, while demand for housing due to immigration and interprovincial migration remains healthy, even if temporarily on hold. New listings are not flooding the market; an indication that sellers are also holding off and trying to gauge the best time to list.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,381,500 in the third quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.2 per cent to $2,477,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.0 per cent to $797,200.

“Consumer confidence and buyer behaviour have a huge impact on the market. With significantly less competition than we saw earlier this year, buyers are taking their time. When they do make an offer, they are not afraid to include conditions and offer below the asking price, even in multiple-offer scenarios – which do still occur, although with much less frequency,” said Ryalls.

Ryalls expects that dampened activity will persist through the winter months and anticipates inventory will shrink significantly in the fourth quarter and heading into the new year.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $744,500 in the third quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased 7.0 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home remained flat, increasing by 0.2 per cent year-over-year to $858,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 5.4 per cent to $392,300 during the same period.

“Despite softening home prices over the summer, Ottawa’s fall real estate market is trending towards more stable conditions as new inventory becomes available. We continue to see strong buyer demand in the region – even if lower than last year’s historical highs – and not enough supply to fully shift to a balanced market,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record, Royal LePage Team Realty. “Despite rising interest rates, many buyers are still keen to make a purchase this year. And, without a significant boost in inventory, it is unlikely we will see a full return to a balanced market.”

Ralph noted that interest rate hikes and inflation have eased competition. However, properties in the most desirable neighbourhoods, if priced properly, can still produce multiple-offer scenarios.

“Although demand remains strong in parts of the region, buyers today are able to be more selective with their purchases and have the opportunity to place conditions in their offers. Those who are in a position to buy feel the pressure to transact before lending rates rise any further.”

Ralph expects healthy market activity in Ottawa for the remainder of the year and anticipates a shift back to pre-pandemic seasonal trends in 2023, as low supply continues to be a challenge.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 6.5 per cent year-over-year to $609,500 in the third quarter of 2022. For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2020, Calgary posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in the aggregate home price, down 1.1 per cent over the second quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.6 per cent year-over-year to $699,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.8 per cent to $234,400 during the same period.

“Calgary is trending towards a more balanced market, with less competition and fewer multiple-offer scenarios,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark.  “Buyers are not feeling as much pressure to make a quick purchase, compared to earlier in the year, and are able to be more selective and place conditions in their offers again.”

Lyall added that demand for single-family homes remains strong, despite an overall slowdown in market activity over the quarter.

“Demand in the region is largely driven by out-of-province buyers, due to Calgary’s relative affordability and quality of life. People from all across the country are choosing to move to the region, which boasts a booming job market, a strong economy, valuable resources for businesses and entrepreneurs, and is considered an ideal place to raise a family,” said Lyall. “Move-up buyers are freeing up some much-needed inventory at the lower end of the market.”

With detached home prices rising and limited inventory in this segment of the market, condominiums in Calgary are seeing an increase in sales.

“Many buyers are opting to purchase condos as a means to enter the market and build equity. They are eager to transact in advance of any further interest rate hikes.”

Lyall expects balanced conditions to remain in place for the remainder of the year, provided inventory levels remain steady.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 3.2 per cent year-over-year to $445,400 in the third quarter of 2022. While home prices continue to show year-over-year growth, on a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased 3.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.6 per cent year-over-year to $482,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.0 per cent to $206,300 during the same period.

“Edmonton is moving towards a balanced housing market, with less competition and fewer multiple-offer scenarios,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Although there is not an abundance of inventory available, demand has softened. Buyers’ needs are being met, which is a positive shift from the trend we were seeing last quarter.”

Shearer noted that with easing competition, buyers are feeling less pressure to transact right away.

“Compared to the frenzied market conditions of earlier in the year, potential homebuyers are able to assess their options and take their time before making a decision. They also have more freedom to add conditions to their offers, more so than in previous quarters,” said Shearer.

Shearer added that the market is largely driven by first-time buyers, as they are eager to get on the real estate ladder.

“Many first-time buyers are ready to make a purchase, knowing it will be a valuable long-term investment that will help them build equity. Despite high inflation and rising lending rates, there remains a strong belief that home ownership is a worthwhile investment for the future,” said Shearer.

Shearer expects Edmonton’s market to remain stable for the remainder of the year and anticipates an increase in competition in the spring.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 4.8 per cent year-over-year to $490,600 in the third quarter of 2022. For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2020, Halifax posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in the aggregate home price, down 6.7 per cent over the second quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $554,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.6 per cent to $410,900 during the same period.

“Sales activity continued to slow through the second half of the quarter, as buyers remained on the sidelines reassessing their finances and attempting to time the market. I expect this trend will continue through the fall, and that demand will be lower than pre-pandemic norms for this time of year, as a result of rising interest rates, high inflation, market fatigue and a decrease in consumer confidence,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic.

Honsberger noted that buyers are not the only ones sitting on the sidelines.

“Many sellers are also taking a wait-and-see approach, resulting in less available inventory for those buyers who are motivated to transact,” said Honsberger. “Where we are still seeing competition is in Halifax’s downtown core. During the pandemic lockdowns, there was a rush of demand for larger properties in the suburbs. Today, we are seeing a return of demand to the city centre, as Canadians return to normal social activities and in-office work.”

Honsberger expects home prices to remain flat for the remainder of the year, and anticipates an uptick in demand in the spring of 2023.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 6.1 per cent year-over-year to $372,600 in the third quarter of 2022. While home prices continue to show year-over-year growth, on a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg decreased 5.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $407,700, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.5 per cent to $253,400 during the same period.

“A rapid rise in interest rates over the last six months has resulted in a softening of demand and with it, a modest decrease in home prices. But, we are far from having outstripped the price gains made during the pandemic real estate boom,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Winnipeg’s real estate market has experienced a gradual slow down in activity, and even that slow down is now moderating, indicating a return to typical seasonal trends this fall.”

Froese noted that while a steady flow of inventory continues to come onto the market, supply remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

“The inventory deficit incurred during the surge of sales over the last two years has not yet been replaced. While demand has softened, there remains a fundamental supply shortage in the region,” said Froese. “Desirable properties that are well priced continue to receive multiple offers, and about one in four homes is still selling above the asking price. Those buyers that remain active in today’s market have adjusted their expectations and their budgets to meet their new financial reality, and are motivated to make a purchase before their pre-approved lending rates expire.”

Froese expects a return to normal seasonal activity over the coming months and into the spring.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $370,000 in the third quarter of 2022. For the first time since the third quarter of 2019, Regina posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in the aggregate home price, down 1.5 per cent over the second quarter of 2022.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $400,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.7 per cent to $212,200 during the same period.

“Rising interest rates have contributed to a softening in the Regina market over the last quarter, following strong seller’s market conditions at the start of the year,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “Although inventory levels are still scaling on the lower end, buyers have more freedom to explore their options, with less competition and fewer multiple-offer scenarios.”

Duggleby notes that rising lending rates and inflation are contributing factors to the market’s slowdown, with many buyers taking a wait-and-see approach before attempting to enter the market or upgrade their current property.

“Many potential buyers are taking a pause to examine their finances before determining if it is the right time to purchase a home. As a result, we are seeing less demand at the lower end of the market, as first-time buyers are being priced out of the market due to rising interest rates. Those who are motivated to buy are finding themselves having to make compromises on the housing type or location.”

Duggleby expects activity in the market will be heavily impacted by the rate of inflation, and anticipates a return to typical market conditions once the cost of consumer goods is reduced.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2022

For other regional releases, click here.

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According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada increased 17.1 per cent year-over-year to $779,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Canada’s real estate market has sustained another year of record prices, as strong buyer demand continues to outpace supply in almost every market from coast to coast.

“Like a bad dream that disrupts your sleep for months on end, we ushered in 2022 with a fresh round of pandemic restrictions designed to combat a new wave of infections. Asked to stay away from the workplace and unable to travel even locally for entertainment, thousands of Canadians have been redirecting their growing savings into improving living conditions, as the family home doubles as office, restaurant and schoolroom,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “It has been a busy winter in the housing industry and a very busy spring looms ahead.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 21.1 per cent year-over-year to $811,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 15.8 per cent year-over-year to $553,800. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Inventory

Eighty-seven per cent of the report’s markets posted double-digit year-over-year aggregate price increases, while 61 per cent of the markets saw a quarterly price increase of 3.0 per cent or greater, which is historically not typical of the Canadian real estate market in a fourth quarter.

“The shortage of homes available for sale or rent is one of the major social and economic challenges of our times,” noted Soper. “Policy makers at all levels of government may take comfort from 2022’s very modest improvement in the supply of available properties relative to demand, yet we see home prices rising at double-digit levels again this year.”

Canada’s chronic housing shortage pre-existed the pandemic and with growing household formation and more newcomers to Canada adding to demand, affordability threatens to erode again.

“Everywhere, in our largest urban centres, and in the nation’s small and medium-sized towns and cities, new homes are not being built fast enough to satisfy growing demand,” said Soper. “In addition to the slow and expensive regulatory processes that burden builders, construction has been hampered by pandemic-specific challenges, including labour shortages and the increased cost of construction materials as suppliers struggle with supply chain issues. Some developers have been hesitant to commit to new projects.”

Interest rates

Canada’s inflation rate reached an 18-year high² at the end of 2021, driven by increased costs to consumer goods, including gasoline and food, and significant delays in the supply chain. The Bank of Canada is expected to begin increasing its overnight lending rate incrementally later this year, which would result in higher mortgage rates.

“Many industry watchers expect the inevitable rise in borrowing costs will abruptly end the current seller’s market with its characteristic rising home values,” Soper said. “We are experiencing the first expansionary housing cycle, which began in the second quarter of 2020, since the introduction of the federal mortgage stress test. Buyers have had to qualify for a loan at a rate much higher than what they will actually pay, creating a significant buffer before they reach their capacity to manage larger payments.”

While rising interest rates slow house price appreciation, higher borrowing costs will be coming off historical lows and the increases may not be enough to offset the significant upward price pressure from Canada’s housing supply crisis.

Federal policy

Royal LePage supports policies that are supportive of transparency in the real estate process and that prioritize consumers’ best interests. One of the proposed changes by the Federal government is an end to blind-bidding in real estate transactions. While this would enhance transparency, it is not expected to improve affordability. Additionally, a one per cent tax on foreign-owned vacant properties, which came into effect on January 1st, is not expected to materially increase housing supply. The nationwide inventory shortage remains the culprit tied to eroding affordability.

“Policies that attempt to artificially quell demand in the face of growing household formation are distractions from Canada’s housing shortage crisis,” concluded Soper.

Immigration

As noted in previous releases, immigration remains one of the largest drivers of buyer demand. According to the Royal LePage Newcomer Survey, the average duration before newcomers purchases a home is three years after arrival and, nationally, 64 per cent rent their first home, spurring significant rental demand in large urban centres.³

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2022 forecast stating that the national aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 10.5 per cent year-over-year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area increased 17.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,119,800 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 22.4 per cent to $1,421,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 14.8 per cent to $665,400 during the same period.

“If the fourth quarter of 2021 is any indication of what is in store for the GTA housing market in the coming months, buyers can expect tight competition through the spring, as demand continues to outpace supply across the region and in every segment of the market,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “This competition will continue to put upward pressure on prices, pushing some buyers to increase their budgets, expand the parameters of their geographical search or consider a different housing type.”

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 8.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,138,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 12.5 per cent to $1,580,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 13.8 per cent to $711,200.

“As affordability continues to wane in the downtown core and the greater region, demand for condominiums is increasing. Many first-time buyers, as well as those who have been priced out of the detached segment over the last year, see condos as an opportunity to enter the real estate market. Without a significant and speedy boost in housing supply, major urban centres like Toronto will remain firmly in a seller’s market.”

Yolevski noted that while many towns and smaller cities in the Golden Horseshoe have been affected by the trend of Torontonians migrating outside the city since the onset of the pandemic, most newcomers expected to enter Canada in 2022 will settle in one of the three largest urban centres. This will increase competition in both the resale and rental markets.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 11.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 19.7 per cent year-over-year to $532,600 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.0 per cent to $595,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 18.2 per cent to $428,900 during the same period. The condominium market posted the fastest price growth of all housing types reported in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the Greater Montreal Area.

“The real estate market behaved as expected, with strong price growth in the first half of the year, followed by easing price gains towards the end of 2021,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage for the Quebec region. “Real estate demand slowed slightly, as vaccination rates ramped up and health restrictions decreased during the second part of the year. However, the rate of price appreciation in the Greater Montreal Area during the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, proved to be robust. While we reported a significant increase in the year-over-year aggregate price, the strongest price growth occurred in the first six months of 2021,” he added.

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $669,500 in the fourth quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 15.3 per cent to $1,101,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.2 per cent to $509,900.

“The rate of home price appreciation that we have seen since the start of the pandemic is closely tied to the fact that consumers’ housing needs have changed,” said St-Pierre. “The home has become the place for all personal and professional activities, and just when we thought we could go back to our usual activities, remote work became mandatory again, and entertainment options, more limited. With the stricter health measures announced in December, demand for real estate is not likely to decrease and we expect a brisk first quarter in Greater Montreal.”

St-Pierre noted that historically, the month of January is known to post the highest count of new listings. However, he expects any new inventory will be absorbed very quickly.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 17.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,253,300 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 23.3 per cent to $1,707,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 12.6 per cent to $717,200 during the same period.

“The supply of available homes in every property segment has reached historic lows, meaning prices can only move up,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “And, because the inventory shortage cannot be solved quickly, tight competition and rising prices are likely to persist for the foreseeable future.”

Ryalls noted that multiple-offer scenarios are the norm, and most properties listed sell over the asking price, usually without conditions.

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 15.4 per cent year-over-year to $1,375,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 14.4 per cent to $2,498,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.5 per cent to $788,400.

“We’ve begun the year with a record low number of homes for sale. Buyers who were unable to transact in the final quarter of 2021 will resume their search, in addition to new demand which normally arrives to the market toward the spring. Without a significant increase in the inventory of available homes, and with the possible impact of the emergence of Omicron, upward pressure on prices will persist and sales volumes are not likely to increase in the near term,” added Ryalls.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 10.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 17.2 per cent year-over-year to $739,700 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.0 per cent to $876,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 11.5 per cent to $417,700 during the same period.

“The Ottawa housing market continued to see strong demand in the fourth quarter of 2021. And, I expect the looming threat of interest rate hikes will further spur demand in the first half of this year,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “Although we are seeing fewer multiple-offer scenarios than earlier in the pandemic, competition remains tight due to a shortage of supply.”

Rogan added that housing demand is largely driven by millennials looking to enter the market. He noted that most buyers in this demographic have two incomes, affording them a substantial monthly budget. However, securing a sizable down payment can be difficult.

“Young Canadians value homeownership, and they want to get on the real estate ladder as soon as possible,” said Rogan. “With inventory reaching historic lows, navigating the housing market has become increasingly challenging for both buyers and sellers. If this level of demand continues, without a significant increase in supply, Ottawa will remain in a firm seller’s market through 2022.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 9.0 per cent year-over-year to $576,800 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.6 per cent to $650,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.0 per cent to $224,700 during the same period.

“Calgary’s real estate market finished the year strong, and I believe the trend will continue into the spring market of 2022. As demand continues to outpace supply in one of the country’s most affordable major cities, prices are expected to continue increasing,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “A lack of inventory, especially in the lower end of the detached market, continues to drive price appreciation and create an increasingly competitive environment for first-time buyers.”

Lyall noted that the city’s real estate market is facing an inventory shortage across all property types, with the exception of condominiums.

“A booming job market, quality of life and affordability are among the top factors contributing to the current increase of demand for housing in Calgary,” added Lyall. “Pent-up demand deferred to the new year is likely to spur a brisk spring market.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 5.0 per cent year-over-year to $428,400 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.6 per cent to $469,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.0 per cent to $193,600 during the same period.

“The positive momentum of Edmonton’s economy, and the relative affordability of the city, continues to drive demand from first-time buyers and young professionals looking to move up in the housing market,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “As strong demand continues to outpace housing supply, house prices will remain on their upward trajectory.”

Shearer noted that new developments continue to be challenged by the increasing costs associated with labour and building material shortages, as well as a sense of hesitancy among developers, spurred by uncertainty surrounding pandemic recovery.

“The supply shortage remains a major roadblock for would-be buyers and continues to apply upward pressure to prices. I expect we’ll see a surge of demand in the first half of 2022, ahead of expected interest rate hikes,” added Shearer.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $484,800 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 15.4 per cent to $543,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 13.6 per cent to $388,500 during the same period.

“A lack of available housing supply has left many buyer hopefuls disappointed. As such, unmet demand from the fourth quarter of 2021 will spill over into the new year, with the hope that the spring market will bring with it some much-needed additional inventory,” said Matt Honsberger, broker, and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Without a significant increase of new listings, the number of sales will likely slow as prices continue to rise.”

Honsberger added that out-of-province buyers continue to be a major driver of demand and price appreciation in Halifax and the surrounding neighbourhoods.

“As we enter yet another phase of pandemic-related restrictions, the need and desire for more space and the option to work remotely continue to make the Maritimes a very attractive place to live for people from all across Canada,” said Honsberger.

The provincial government is still considering a proposed tax on non-resident homebuyers in Nova Scotia.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 10.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 9.6 per cent year-over-year to $357,200 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 14.7 per cent to $390,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 16.1 per cent to $233,600 during the same period.

“Inventory shortages caused a lot of buyer fatigue in the fourth quarter, especially among first-time homebuyers, which means a lot of that pent-up demand will be transferred to this year,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “I expect a brisk spring market as young buyer hopefuls compete to secure a purchase before borrowing costs increase significantly.”

Froese noted that the city’s condominium segment is seeing strong price appreciation, as low supply of detached homes continues to drive demand for more affordable units.

“Detached homes are typically the most highly sought-after housing type in Winnipeg. However, some buyers are considering alternative property types that are more affordable. I expect this trend to continue into the spring,” added Froese.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 13.2 per cent year-over-year to $360,100 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 15.9 per cent to $387,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 13.4 per cent to $204,300 during the same period.

“Regina’s housing market remained strong through November and December, which are traditionally slower months in the region,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “I hope to see an increase in supply in the spring, to help satisfy some of the pent-up demand. Better weather conditions will likely entice sellers to list their properties.”

Duggleby added that constraints in the supply chain resulting in low supply of building materials continue to delay new construction projects.

“New housing supply is not being created fast enough to keep up with growing demand. As Canada looks to increase its immigration targets in 2022, competition among buyers will remain tight and prices will continue to rise,” said Duggleby.

Duggleby expects new job creation in the potash industry and canola processing sector will be a main driver of demand in the region over the coming year.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter in 2021.

Royal LePage Home Price Data:

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2021

Royal LePage Royalty-Free Media Assets:

Royal LePage’s media room contains royalty-free assets, such as images and b-roll, that are free for media use.

• Media room: rlp.ca/mediaroom
• Royalty-free assets: rlp.ca/media-assets

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

 

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada increased 21.4 per cent year-over-year to $749,800 in the third quarter of 2021. Market activity slowed as a result of a chronic lack of inventory, a persisting challenge for housing markets from coast-to-coast, coupled with the seasonal summer slowdown.

“During the third quarter, the torrid pace of home price appreciation moderated as both demand and inventory waned, a typical summer market trend in a very atypical year. With easing pandemic restrictions, there was finally something to talk about other than real estate, and people began travelling and socializing again,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “In addition, a year of relentless competition for too few properties drove some would-be purchasers to the sidelines as buyer fatigue set in. Yet their fundamental need or desire for a new home remains and we are seeing pent-up demand grow. We expect another unusually busy winter season building to a brisk 2022 spring market.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 25.2 per cent year-over-year to $790,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 13.0 per cent year-over-year to $533,600. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Boosting all segments of the housing market, with more immediate benefits for the condominium sector in large urban centres, immigration will continue to be a critical driver of housing demand. The Royal LePage Newcomer Survey showed that the average duration before newcomers purchase a home is three years after arrival and, nationally, 64 per cent rent their first home.²

“While detached houses in suburban and smaller city communities continue to be the primary driver of Canada’s aggregate house price growth, we are seeing prices leveling in many of these regions and expect future growth to track closer to historical norms,” said Soper. “While the price gap between houses and condominiums widened during the pandemic, that too should reverse itself in the months ahead, as buyers see condo units as good value for money. In addition, the revitalization of our cities, as employees return to offices and the businesses that serve them reopen, is driving renewed interest from investors eager to provide much-needed rental accommodation.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 16.0 per cent to $771,500 in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

“Looking back to the late spring of 2020, the Royal LePage benchmark value of a home was $580,000. The subsequent ‘Covid-catalyst’ which drove legions of Canadians to upgrade their living situations, has created a period of exceptional home price growth with real estate values on track to grow 33 per cent by year end,” concluded Soper.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area increased 17.9 per cent year-over-year to $1,075,900 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 24.2 per cent to $1,352,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 12.3 per cent to $645,300 during the same period.

“More than 18 months into the pandemic, and we are continuing to see strong price appreciation in the suburbs, as well as secondary cities outside of the GTA, fueled by a desire for larger homes, more outdoor space and the flexibility of location, afforded by the option of remote work,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “This trend began prior to the pandemic, and has been accelerated since March, 2020. The question that remains is what percentage of those who moved away from the city centre will ultimately make their way back. Future newcomers to Canada will also be a significant factor in future demand.”

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 4.8 per cent year-over-year to $1,110,500 in the third quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.9 per cent to $1,566,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.7 per cent to $687,700.

“In the city centre, prices continue to rise as supply fails to satisfy growing demand. The condo segment continues to rebound, following a drop in sales and prices early in the pandemic. As immigration levels increase, so too will demand for condominiums in major urban centres like Toronto, which will put more pressure on prices in the coming year.”

Yolevski added that while activity cooled slightly in the third quarter, and fewer listings received multiple offers, a chronic shortage of inventory will continue to create a competitive environment for buyers.

“In some cases, would-be sellers are not putting their homes on the market for fear they will not find another property to buy,” said Yolevski. “I expect, even as the rate of appreciation slows, prices will continue to climb through the remainder of the year and into 2022, when unmet demand from this year returns to the market.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 14.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 20.8 per cent year-over-year to $517,200 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.0 per cent to $571,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 12.2 per cent to $410,400 during the same period.

“Signs of a slowdown that we had anticipated were confirmed during the third quarter,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage in Quebec. “Quarter-over-quarter price changes have fallen to their lowest rate since the start of the pandemic, below one per cent, whereas the increases of the previous quarters had varied between 5 and 10%.”

St-Pierre added that the lack of inventory nevertheless contributes to upward pressure on home prices.

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 14.7 per cent year-over-year to $648,700 in the third quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 19.2 per cent to $1,060,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.8 per cent to $502,200.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 17.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year, the highest of all forecasted regions in the country. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 20.8 per cent year-over-year to $1,221,400 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 23.4 per cent to $1,651,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.7 per cent to $697,000 during the same period.

“Vancouver and the surrounding greater region remains firmly in a seller’s market. Although activity showed signs of slowing modestly in the summer and early days of September, the market has picked up again, now that families are back in their usual routines,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “With inventory as low as it is, competition remains tight in every segment of the market. Most listings receive multiple offers, and it’s very common to sell above the asking price.”

Ryalls noted that having approximately 15,000 available listings in Greater Vancouver is considered a balanced market. The region currently has less than 9,000 listings.

“Supply would essentially need to double in order to meet the current demand. As a result of the shortage, prices continue to rise, forcing some buyers who have been priced out of the single-family detached market to purchase condominiums instead,” said Ryalls.

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 12.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,326,600 in the third quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 14.0 per cent to $2,399,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.2 per cent to $766,800.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 15.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

“With no major relief to the inventory shortage on the horizon, I expect strong demand will continue to put upward pressure on prices, and that competition will persist through 2022,” added Ryalls.

Interprovincial migration has put further strain on housing in British Columbia. According to a recent StatsCan report, British Columbia saw the largest increase in interprovincial migration nationally in 2020/2021, welcoming more than 34,000 Canadians from out-of-province. This was also the province’s biggest gain since 1993/1994.³

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 20.7 per cent year-over-year to $725,200 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 23.0 per cent to $856,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 11.3 per cent to $414,700 during the same period.

“We’ve seen a gradual yet steady decline in active listings over the last six years, and that lack of inventory remains the greatest challenge for buyers today,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “Even if demand returned to historic levels, there would still not be enough housing supply to meet that demand.”

Rogan noted that while Ottawa remains firmly in a seller’s market, the usual summer slowdown did occur in the early half of the third quarter.

“Compared to the spring, there are fewer multiple-offer scenarios today, but they have not been eliminated entirely. Much of the demand is coming from first-time buyers looking for larger properties with adequate space to continue working from home long-term,” said Rogan. “I expect the final months of 2021 will look very similar to the third quarter. Sales should continue to moderate, and price appreciation will persist.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 17.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 9.9 per cent year-over-year to $572,200 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.3 per cent to $643,700, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.9 per cent to $225,800 during the same period.

“Sales activity remains high while inventory is low because as soon as good listings come on the market, they sell quickly. We haven’t seen a September with sales as strong as this year since 2005,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “Inventory is only modestly outpacing sales and buyers are continuing to push themselves financially to be competitive and make the transaction.”

Lyall added that significantly low inventory in the entry-level market has put upward pressure on middle market home prices.

“During the second quarter, we began to see much stronger demand for larger homes as entry-level home prices appreciated at a faster pace and this trend has continued through the third quarter. However, the first-time buyer market will likely continue to be the most active segment,” added Lyall. “As home prices increase at the lower levels, buyers are realizing that for only a relatively modest amount more, they can shop in a very different home category.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in July, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the current state of the market.

“We are continuing to see buyers, especially young families, relocate from the GTA. If parents can do their same job or find a new career in Calgary, they will relocate for a better lifestyle. With half of what they would pay in the GTA, they can afford a large family home in a popular neighbourhood,” said Lyall.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 9.7 per cent year-over-year to $431,500 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.1 per cent to $470,400 and the median price of a condominium decreased 3.0 per cent to $194,700 during the same period.

“Despite being firmly in a seller’s market, buyers are being discerning about their home purchases. While properties that are priced accurately and in popular neighbourhoods are still seeing multiple offers, seller’s that list higher than market value are not seeing any interest,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate.

Shearer added that demand for homes priced between $550,000 and $850,000 continues to increase as buyers stretch their budget to push their options outside of the heavily competitive first-time buyer market. This demand has put upward price pressure on the middle market through to the upper-end market.

“We continue to see demand in previously dormant markets and this has been driven by low mortgage rates over the past year. As it continues, the upward price pressure moves to more expensive properties. Currently, we are seeing demand for homes over $1 million surge more than 30 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels,” added Shearer.

Although condominium prices have dipped year-over-year, Shearer expects demand to return to the segment when the city-centre becomes more vibrant and demand from international students returns.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in July, 2021, has been revised modestly downward to reflect the current state of the market.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 16.1 per cent year-over-year to $468,000 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 19.0 per cent to $535,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 15.8 per cent to $385,500 during the same period.

“Demand was stronger than a typical third quarter but markedly quieter than the first half of the year, which is likely seasonal. However, as inventory also decreased over the past few months, there was still notable upward pressure on prices,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic.

In regards to interprovincial buyers, Honsberger said that the majority of buyers are from Ontario but the percentage of those looking to move to Atlantic Canada from British Columbia has been rising. According to a recent StatsCan report, Nova Scotia saw a surge of interprovincial migration. All four Atlantic provinces posted a net interprovincial migratory increase for the first time since 2009/2010, with current migration levels at or near record levels.⁴

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 9.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021. Honsberger noted that they have seen a surge of interest from clients looking towards the 2022 spring market to transact.

“There is not much inventory relief expected in the new year but many buyers are hopeful that they will find more selection in the spring market. Developers can’t keep pace and we are expecting demand from interprovincial migration, student accomodation and immigration to remain high,” added Honsberger. “Buyers have been motivated to get organized so they can lock in mortgage rates and get educated on the market. This will help them make decisions quickly if a desired listing becomes available.”

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 17.0 per cent year-over-year to $351,200 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 15.2 per cent to $389,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 25.6 per cent to $242,400 during the same period.

“In the last few months, activity has slowed. And, for the first time all year, sales were down in August and September, although still well above the five-year average,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “We’ve become accustomed to a heightened level of activity in the housing market over the last year and a half, that any pace reduction can seem significant. While the market may have de-intensified during the summer months, due in part to buyer fatigue, price appreciation remains at historic levels because demand remains high.”

Froese added that dwindling supply is also contributing to a dip in market activity.

“There is simply not enough inventory to keep pace with growing demand. Although there is less competition now than in the spring, there are still more potential buyers than there are homeowners looking to sell, meaning prices are not likely to decrease significantly,” said Froese.

Froese noted that at the height of the market in May, 60 per cent of detached homes in Winnipeg were selling over the asking price. In September, that figure decreased to 48 per cent. He anticipates activity will continue to moderate heading into the winter months, but does not expect prices to go down.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. This forecast is consistent with the company’s previous update in July, 2021.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 11.7 per cent year-over-year to $352,100 in the third quarter of 2021. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 12.8 per cent to $380,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.9 per cent to $198,900 during the same period.

“Strong competition in the single-family detached market continues to put upward pressure on house prices, although we did see a slight softening in activity over the last quarter,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “While there are fewer multiple-offer scenarios today than at the start of the pandemic, competition remains very tight for buyers as a result of a shortage in housing stock.”

Duggleby noted that demand for condominiums has also increased with the return of post-secondary students to the classroom, and anticipates a boost in immigration next year will drive further price growth in this segment of the market.

“Without an impactful increase in supply, the price of entry-level properties like condos will continue to rise, especially if immigration returns to pre-pandemic levels,” said Duggleby. “New development projects are not progressing quickly enough, as materials and labour continue to be in short supply.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 11.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in July, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the current state of the market.

Royal LePage Home Price Data:

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2021
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2021

Royal LePage Royalty-Free Media Assets:

Royal LePage’s media room contains royalty-free assets, such as images and b-roll, that are free for media use.

• Media room: rlp.ca/mediaroom
• Royalty-free assets: rlp.ca/media-assets

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.